Joseph should not be released. This decision is based on an evaluation of Joseph’s parole review based on the Risk Prediction Model. The Risk Prediction Model works by predicting the results of granting parole based on the prisoner’s criminal history. There are two main factors evaluated in the prisoner’s criminal history. The first factor is risk assessment. Risk assessment is determined by assessing the prisoner’s behavior before incarceration and during incarceration. The second factor is the severity of the offence committed by the prisoner. Violent and sexual crimes are normally viewed as severe offences. (Carmen, 2007)
First an assessment of Joseph’s behavior before and during incarceration is necessary to determine the risk of recidivism. Before his present incarceration, Joseph had served a previous sentence for burglary. During his current incarceration, Joseph has no rule violations. Furthermore, he has completed substance abuse treatment and an anger management program. If a decision were to be made based on risk assessment alone, Joseph is likely to be granted parole.
However, an assessment of offence severity must be done before making this decision. Joseph is serving a sentence for two counts of armed robbery. Armed robbery is ranked as H+ according to the Texas offence severity list. (Texas Board of Pardons and Paroles, 2012). There were two victims to these crimes. Both victims remain fearful of Joseph and none of them ever returned to work.
These two assessments guide decision making through risk prediction. Joseph’s parole should be denied on these assessments. Although Joseph seems to be well behaved during his present incarceration, one cannot ignore the fact that he is a repeat offender. Furthermore, he committed the severe crime of armed robbery, not once but twice.
Another reason to deny Joseph parole is the fact that he plans to return to the same community even thought he has a low likelihood of finding employment.